by Robert Bloomfield

If you are an educator, or have kids in school, you are probably hearing a lot about h1n1, otherwise known as swine flu. Here at Cornell, where we have had hundreds of cases so far, and one death already, we are positively swimming in hand sanitizer, instructions on how and when to wash our hands, how to cover up when we sneeze, and any number of techniques that will curtail the spread of this flu.

But there is one bit of advice I am not hearing, but wish I were: use virtual worlds.

Enterprises and educators are already using virtual worlds because they allow a high degree of engagement without the travel costs that are so much a part of face-to-face contact. Well, h1n1 raises the cost of face-to-face contact even if the travel consists only of leaving your office, walking down the hall and taking a seat. In fact, the US government has taken a very close look at proposals to close down schools to lower the peak attack rates—the greatest number of people sick at any one time. Peak attack rates are a key concern because they potentially overwhelm the health care system.

But as the Brookings institute has reported, school closures are controversial because of the high cost. School closings costs school systems money when they make up the missed time later. Even if the time is made up, school closings harm educational outcomes. Kids skills don’t just stand still during interruption, they actually go backwards. The biggest cost of school closings comes in the form of worker absenteeism as parents stay home with their kids, rather than going to work, even when they are healthy. The Brookings Institute reports that absenteeism is likely to cost the US economy about $142 per child per week that a school is closed.

Widespread school closings still seem pretty unlikely this year, and even if they occurred, virtual worlds aren’t yet in a position to provide a large scale solution. But next time, they had better be. Virtual worlds allow education to continue through the epidemic, and by allowing parents to telecommute more effectively, reduce the costs of worker absenteeism. More generally, virtual worlds provide a cheap way to collaborate, whether in schools or other enterprises, without the risk of spreading illness.
Maybe I’ve missed it, but I haven’t seen anyone talking publicly about the role virtual worlds can play in epidemics. No one wants to sound like they are rooting for disasters because it is good for business. But someone really needs to. After all, it might be fun to think about what wonderful things virtual worlds might be able to do in the future, but isn’t just as important to think about what terrible outcomes virtual worlds might prevent.

In fact, let’s broaden our focus. What about other disasters? The Federal Emergency Management Administration, FEMA, helpfully provides a list of the ones under their jurisdiction. So here we go, in alphabetical order:
• Chemical Emergencies
• Dam Failure
• Earthquake
• Fire
• Flood
• Hazardous Material
• Heat
• Hurricane
• Landslide
• Nuclear Power Plant Emergency
• Terrorism
• Thunderstorm
• Tornado
• Tsunami
• Volcano
• Wildfire
• Winter Storm

Note that FEMA doesn’t include pandemic, perhaps because that is under the jurisdiction of the Center for Disease Control. And they don’t include nuclear war, perhaps because no one want to even think about it. But someone needs to think about these issues, and determine what role virtual worlds can play.

To get you started, I’d just like to note two key dimensions we need to consider. First, to what extent does the disaster create a need for virtual communication with the high level of engagement virtual worlds can provide? Even if you think getting together in a virtual world provides only a little more personal connection than a phone call, every little bit counts a lot when you are worried about your friends and family.

Second, to what extent does the disaster damage the infrastructure virtual worlds would rely on? Virtual worlds are not a great solution to nationwide blackouts.

If you look at it this way, epidemics provide something of a ‘perfect storm’ for virtual worlds. They generate a strong demand for high-engagement distance collaboration (especially education for children and telecommuting for parents), and cause little damage to our infrastructure. So they are the right place to start.